WSU Cougars Athlon Review 2005
First, lets joy in the decision that the Huskies made to bring in Willingham last year – a decision so positive for the program that Athlon Sports expects them to be the 86th best team this year, right below Connecticut (Name their mascot…. times up!) and Hawaii the year after they lost their best quarterback ever.  Basically Athlon picks the huskies to be a middle of the road WAC team this year. Gotta love it.

So, did I make our preseason ranking of 50th not sound so bad?   When you take into account the fact Athlon generally under ranks us and over ranks the huskies, this should be an exceptionally good year for the Apple Cup.

The rest of the Pac 10:
USC is ranked number one again (yawn), unfortunately that will probably stay true as long as the USC brain trust stays intac----oops, Norm Chow is gone.  The former BYU magician has left the fold, and it seems like the press is assuming there will be no drop off.  Check the BYU stats since Norm left there to get an indication of where they have gone since he left them.  That’s right, nowhere.  But a 33-1 record since October of 2002 is hard to argue with.  With Matt Leinart back one more year at QB I know I won’t be placing any bets against them.

Take a look at the Awards Page it is easy to see how dominant they believe the Trojans will be this year:

TOP QB UNITS:     USC #1
TOP RB UNITS:     USC #2 (Oklahoma #1)
TOP WR/TE Units:  USC #1 (even WITHOUT Jason hill on the team)
                           Oregon State is #2
Top DL Units         USC #3, California #2 Texas #1
TOP DL Units         USC #6
TOP LB Units         Unranked, UCLA #3
TOP DB Units        Unranked, Arizona #6

The offense is expected to score so many points that even though opposing offenses might put some points on the board; they will never be able to catch up.  Once an offense slaps 21 points on you, your offense becomes very predictable, so watch the USC defense look smarter and smarter as the games go on, and maybe lead the nation in turn over ratio.

In general the opinion is that other than USC the west coast will bite this year, with the only other well-ranked west coast teams being Boise State at 18, Arizona State at 19. UCLA 27, California 28, Fresno State 30.

Enough about THEM what do they say about WSU and why.
50th?   For those of us who follow the program the reasons are pretty obvious:

1. The uncertain situation at quarterback will keep the offense from running a peak efficiency, especially if they have to get used to Swogger in the fall instead of Alex Brink, who has taken most of the snaps so far.  Really they seem to look at us like USC – only worse.  A Great offense, a not so great defense, and a team that depends upon outscoring its opponents.  They think our kicking game sucks, and they are probably expecting Jerome Harrison to get Hurt before the UCLA game.

WHY I BELIEVE WE WILL BE BETTER THAN THAT

1. I’m an alumni – it’s my job!  I normally see things though crimson colored glasses – which, a little Jeffrey dahmer if you think about it.

2. I believe in Coach Doba – he is a great defensive mind.  I have faith that he might even be able to sneak up on USC now that Norm Chow is gone (ours was good, theirs WAS better).  Some how the double play combination of Kiffin and Sarkisian as a two headed offensive coordinator doesn’t strike fear into my heart.  As with running backs, if you are sharing time between two it is usually because neither is that good.

3. Our early season is so favorable that our team should ride momentum into the games with UCLA, California, and USC.  Football is a game of momentum

4. We’ve replaced the Huskies as the Washington place to be for defensive players.  We are consistently getting fine defensive players that are able to step in and do the job when they are young. 

Our Achilles heal – Field goals.

            The difference between average teams and good ones, or between average teams and great ones, is a few points per game, generally field goals.  We all remember key games determined by one irritating play, whether its wide right (ask the Huskies the last few years), or right through the middle.  Unless our kicking game becomes much more consistent we are destined to lose 2, maybe 3 games by a couple points here and there, probably in those tough games against UCLA, Oregon and California.  I’ll be optimistic and say that even if we miss field goals against the Huskies, they will miss more.

Preseason predictions:
A school by school breakdown of the teams we will face in the 2005 season, in order of appearance:

Idaho --- We love you guys, but my dad was right, we stopped playing you for a reason.  Ranked 118 out of 119 by Athlon, and with the budget problems that school is having, maybe they should just pack it in and become the WSU-Idaho extension.  When I was a student at WSU the highest ranking that U of I received was for their summer cheerleader camp – but I can’t talk about that here.

Prediction - WSU 42 – Idaho 7

At Nevada --- The WAC is a much better conference than it used to be, and… sorry, I just can’t.  Outside of Boise State and MAYBE Fresno State the Wac is still the PAC 10’s minor league affiliate.  Nevada may be good enough to beat the huskies this year (Luckily for the Huskies, they don’t play each other).  But most lack the depth necessary to finish games against the better teams.  They will be able to score on us, but not enough.  If WSU gets out to a quick start this could be a rout as wel

Prediction – WSU 30 - Nevada 17

Grambling --- in Seattle.  There was a lot of “Grambling” by the eastside Cougar alumni when we began playing early games in Seattle every year, especially from those of us (I was included) who remembered what a disaster playing games in Spokane was.  Seattle has proven a much more hospitable place to play, with wins against lesser teams offsetting some irritating loses to the Huskies in the minds of fans and future players living on Puget Sound.  If you look at the time line, it might even be one of the reasons for the resurgence of Cougar football at the expense of the Huskies program.  In any case, this should be another easy WSU rout accompanying a mariner’s loss for those driving over for the game.  I know nothing about Grambling other than they are a primarily black college with a legendary marching band and a football team…. Remember the movie  “bring it on”? If you are a guy you do. Grambling is a similar situation, only with a marching band instead of Cheerleaders.
 

Prediction – WSU 54 - Grambling 13

At Oregon State --- our first Pac 10 game and first real test. They are picked to finish one spot behind us in the standings, ranked 53 to our 50.  It might come down to us stopping Mike Haas.  If it does we’re in trouble.  This is a game where the defense will have to find a way to get to the quarterback quickly enough to keep Haas from getting long yards easy. If Will Derting isn’t 100% by now we could be in trouble.   They play both Louisville and Boise State early, which they probably thought were easy wins when they scheduled them, but which now represent some of the tougher games on their schedule.   The week before they play us they play ASU, who is picked to finish right behind USC.  I’m counting on them limping into the game with us and coming out flat (told you I’m a homer!).  Please let this not come down to us needing to make a field goal in the final seconds!

Prediction – WSU 28   Oregon State 27

Stanford –-- win.. win.. win..   Even when Stanford is good we expect to beat them, and this year is no exception.  Their new coach Walt Harris seems to have a decent resume, but it will probably take a year or two for him to get things working the way he wants them to, especially with two mediocre quarterback candidates and a porous defense. This should be a fun one for the Cougars, and easy Pac 10 victory.

Prediction - W - WSU 24, Stanford 10

UCLA --- hmmmm.  Pundits say we’ll lose, but the past couple years the Bruins haven’t been anything exciting to see, and with the questions at quarterback, I’m hoping we can sneak up on these guys and beat them.  That’s a stretch, but hey, it’s a home game.   I don’t see them scoring lots of points on us, and I feel good about our offense.  This is another potential kicking game loss (cross your fingers!).

Prediction, W - WSU 17, UCLA 14

At California  --- I believe Cal will be a better team than UCLA because they will have a better quarterback, and a better offensive line.  That should make up for some weak receivers.  Will Derting could be the key to this game, though they should be able to game plan for him enough to force other Cougars to step up.  I believe their running game will be too much for us.  I went back and forth with these two games, does UCLA’s good receivers  exploit our weak secondary? Or does Cal run the ball well enough that their quarterbacks are still able to exploit our weak secondary?  We won’t win both.  My beat is that we win the UCLA game and lose this one.  Running teams are just better late in the game when you need the yards.

Prediction, Loss – California 20, WSU 17

At USC --- last year I went way out on a limb and predicted a loss against USC and even my own father called me a traitor.  Its not un-cougar to believe you don’t have snow balls chance in hell against one of the best offensive systems in the history of football.  With the exit of Norm Chow all of that has changed.  We are probably still going to lose, but I bet these Trojans are more human than the stellar performers that massacred everything in their path the past two years. 

Prediction, Loss – USC 28, WSU 21

Arizona State --- Lost money on this one last year to my neighbor across the street (formerly a professional gambler in Vegas) that never loses bets.  I’ll tell you who is going to win after I hear what he has to say.  But my FEELING is that ASU is beatable.  They are only ranked 19 in the pre-season, which means they have questions to be answered, namely replacing Andrew Walter at quarterback – Oh, and their starting Tailback was charged with first-degree murder so he won’t be suiting up (in sun devil colors at least).  The replacements replacement is a little guy who might get hurt.  If he goes down then we should win.  On the other hand, if either Derting or Harrison can’t play this game we probably go down in flames.  I’ll be the optimist and expect ASU’s bad luck to continue.  Even though our games with ASU have been high scoring in past years, I think both offenses will be beaten up enough that production will be down.

Prediction – WSU 17, ASU 14.

Oregon --- Ah Oregon.   Last fall Timberline High School beat my alma mater North Thurston behind the running of one Jonathan Stewart.  Stewart chose Oregon on signing day, so I have another reason to want us to win this game big.  The only way he will play is if Terrence Whitehead falters, but he’ll still be a great change of pace running back for them.  Look for their running game to better than the nation thinks, even though they only return 6 starters and have a new offensive coordinator.  We’ll still beat them though, because by then their thin line of good starters will be beaten up and they will be fading.

Prediction, win.  WSU 14, Oregon 12.

Which brings us to APPLE CUP 2005 (dat da da da – I can hear Keith Jacksons Voice now).

At Washington.  I was nervous last year, we have an irritating habit of losing to the dogs even in the best of years, but here’s hoping that the Huskies woes continue, especially at quarterback.  Two in a row?  The last time that happened was 1982-83  But it will happen again this year.

So there you go, a homer prediction of 9-2, with 2 games that could sneak away from us.  Count on the Cougars for at least 7 wins this year if things don’t run smoothly, but its pre-season, so we can be optimists.  Right?

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